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Predicting MSI: Where Will Your Region Stand?

Zeju 2016-05-03 07:39:53

After an interesting Spring Split, six teams have earned qualification to the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI), where they will do battle in one of the rare international tournaments that take place during the year. In anticipation for the event, we can look at the form and respective seasonal performances of each of the competitors in order to see where they might stack up as we move closer to MSI.  

With the history of the event in mind, pundits have learned to take MSI results with a grain of salt. EDward Gaming won, defeating SK Telecom T1 in 2015, offering a glimmer of hope to the Chinese faithful only to be absolutely humiliated and denied by the rampaging Koreans when the World Championships came around. With the teams qualified this year, we can review their Spring Split performances and hypothesize how their MSI tournament will go.

While it is true that victory at MSI does not tell us who will end the year as World Champions, it does well in showing us team strength in international play midway through the season. However, many have argued that the legitimacy of the tournament was hampered by several key factors, including practice conditions, an extremely short tournament duration of three days (for perspective, jet lag for the Eastern players could have lasted up to five days), and the use of best-of-ones (or single round-robin) in the group stage.  

The tournament will see an improvement in format over last year, introducing a double round-robin in the group stage. This means that every team will play each other twice. The result should be a more accurate reading on team strength as we enter the bracket stage, and while it isn’t as prudent as a best-of-three system, winning a game or two via unconventional methods will not be enough to see you qualify for the playoffs.  

 

SK Telecom T1 - Faker has been a member of SKT since 2013, and is the most decorated League player in history with two World Championships, numerous domestic titles, All-Star appearances and MVP credentials to his name. Everyone expects him to dominate the midlane, and all eyes are on him to do so.

Something happened this Spring that has not happened in recent memory: SKT were challenged -- properly challenged by a surging ROX Tigers. Some consider it quite a surprise that they even won the final, but in hindsight, whoever won the Korean final was absolutely going to be the favorite at MSI.  

If we take note of the collective strength of 2016 MSI vs. the rosters that participated in 2015, it becomes difficult to find a legitimate competitor for SKT. Their entire roster is full of stars, and with Kkoma’s 'Easyhoon syndrome' (in where he would field an arguably weaker roster in order to give their at-the-time substitute midlaner some game time in important matches) removed, we can expect a full strength roster in every single game; again, an argument can be made that this is the only reason they lost MSI last year.  

In as far as how SKT actually played in Spring, it’s fair to say that they actually struggled. In fact, ROX Tigers were completely dominant, boasting an 89% win record and defeating SKT in both their regular split series. Qualifying third to make it into the playoffs, SKT went on to comprehensively defeat Jin Air Green Wings, KT Rolster and ROX Tigers to win the split.  

As previously stated, SKT are undoubtedly the favorites for this tournament, but what will their record look like? Will they drop a game, or a series?  

It seems very unlikely that they will lose a series to anyone at MSI, but it’s possible they could lose a game or two. For SKT, their biggest threat is waiting for them to return home. However, that exact mentality is what gives competing teams hope. If SKT get cocky or complacent in a fashion similar to MSI 2015, they’ll be vulnerable.

 

Royal Never Give Up - Mata, a World Champion and one of, if not the greatest support to ever grace League of Legends, has helped build this team into champions. If RNG does pull off the underdog story and win MSI, they’ll look to Mata to lead the way.

The champions of China did exactly what their name suggests. After a difficult season in 2015, the team that has twice graced the finals of the World Championship came into the Spring Split of the LPL with a fierce drive for success, earning an 87% win record throughout the split in order to qualify for the playoffs.

Led by star players Mata and Looper, RNG defeated Team WE and Edward Gaming on their path to the spring championship, qualifying them for MSI. It wasn’t easy though, as the series with WE went to game five and a shaky EDG took a game from the new champions. Moreover, there is some cause for concern for the Chinese faithful, with pundits questioning the potential of the team in international play.

For RNG, their main rival will likely be LMS team Flash Wolves. The most likely outcome for MSI is LPL vs. LMS fighting it out to see who gets to fight the favorites -- SKT. That doesn’t mean RNG can underestimate the Western teams though, with whom their perceived inconsistency may cost them games, especially with European squad G2 Esports, who seem to match up particularly well against Chinese teams, in that their play is almost a replica of the stereotypical Chinese style.   

It will be a pleasure to watch former world champions Mata and Looper back at an international event, leading a young and hungry roster in a tournament where they realistically can do very well. While it is expected for this team to absolutely finish top three, it’s hard to believe they’ll finish higher than second, where they’ll lose out to SKT in the finals if they should make it.  

 

G2 Esports - A product of CJ Entus, Trick burst onto the European scene for the 2016 season and has been instrumental in shaping the team into what they are now. With a fantastic mind for the game and excellent technical ability, his leadership in their first international tournament will be vital to success.

As we already touched on above, G2 have a very eccentric and aggressive style of play, constantly picking fights and looking for advantages across the map. It's with this pseudo-Chinese playstyle that we have seen them so empathetically burst into the European LCS and effectively dominate the split. G2 are essentially our very own esports Leicester City underdog success story.  

Their split was impressive, with Spring playing host to a very competitive and top-heavy league. Despite this, they finished the regular season with a 15-3 record and only dropped two games in the playoffs. G2 have shown extremely impressive form throughout the playoffs and have exhibited a proficiency when it comes to adaptation - a vital trait, especially considering how Riot prepares international tournaments.

Their makeup is interesting, not clearly having one standout player but rather five good players functioning effectively as a unit. Although their most notable names are perhaps Kikis and Emperor, they are all equally valuable. Their efficient and skirmishing roster will likely perform to expectations, with a good chance of qualifying for the playoffs and competing with LMS and LPL for second place in the tournament, given a theoretical best case scenario.

 

Flash Wolves - The name SwordArt has become synonymous with the Flash Wolves, as his individual performances as well as his aggressive playstyle have brought him recognition across the world. With his wealth of international experience, expect a fantastic tournament from the veteran.

LMS has seen fierce competition at the top of its league with ahq e-Sports Club and Flash Wolves finishing the regular season in first and second respectively. Many predicted a close final, but FW didn't drop a game at all in the playoffs, earning a clean sweep over both Machi E-Sports and ahq.

The region has a habit of turning up to international events ready to play. We've seen several instances where people underestimate the strength of LMS teams and pay the price, which may have been an advantage for them in the past. However, after repeated impressive performances, LMS are less of an enigma to their competitors now -- but that doesn't make them any less fierce.

A tight regular season with their excellent geographical location allows them the highest quality of practice as they prepare for international play, granting them access to practice against both Korean and Chinese teams. This, as history would indicate, is one of their greatest strengths in preparing for a tournament. The Wolves themselves are arguably hottest team coming into this tournament, given their exceptional form in the playoffs. They'll be one of the strongest teams in the tournament, and are the team most likely to end up finishing second.

 

Counter Logic Gaming - A brilliant individual talent, Aphromoo’s unity and teamwork are what make him a phenomenal player. The ability to bring rookies up to his high standard and forge a championship winning team after so many questions prove his ability not only as a player, but as a leader.

Led by iconic support Aphromoo, his words after the team's triumph over TSM in the finals of the North American LCS dared to spark belief that CLG could be a threat at this tournament. With an obvious point to prove, the new champions of North America will be looking to bring international success to the region -- something that has proved nearly impossible in the past.

Indeed, looking at the team at face value, it's hard to find a significant positive element relative to their coming competition. In fact, aside from Darshan and Aphromoo, there isn't an overabundance of confidence in the roster with regards to international play. Xmithie is an excellent example of average consistency, but he won't win games by himself. Conversely, Huhi and Stixxay are unproven internationally, and yet to face a stage such as this.  

It must be said, that with their struggles to find victory in North America, it's very difficult to predict CLG even making it into the playoffs. There's a very high possibility for a fifth place finish due to the level of talent that they face. Their goal at this tournament should be to qualify for playoffs with mind that If they can do that, they'll prove themselves to be one of the strongest teams to come out of NA in recent history. Furthermore, it will prove that the region has, indeed, caught up to the East (relatively speaking, at least).  

 

SuperMassive eSports - With international experience already under his belt thanks to his tenure at Be?ikta?, Dumbledoge is in prime position to help guide SuperMassive to a productive tournament. Seen as one of the best wildcard supports, he will be eager to show how much he has improved in his second international appearance.

The clear underdog of the tournament, MSI can still be fruitful for SuperMassive, who should look to other Wildcard entries and how they have approached international tournaments in the past. Almost every Wildcard entry in recent history has taken their chances for learning and improving, making their purpose practical and realistic while using it as a base to set the team up for future international appearances. Though we've yet to see a Wildcard team earn multiple international appearances, there's little doubt that this is the best (and perhaps the only logical) approach to MSI, given the circumstances.

The team does sport some known names such as Thaldrin and Dumbledoge, and given the vulnerabilities we've seen in teams such as RNG and CLG, SuperMassive could absolutely punish an unprepared team, but that's the same with any wildcard team. The infamous KaBuM vs. Alliance game being the most well known example.  

The consensus does seem to be that the team is going to finish last, and will struggle to win a game. That doesn't mean that this can't be a positive experience for the Turkish organization, and of course, winning a game will feel like winning the tournament itself for the underdogs.

Zeju focuses primarily on LCK/LCS. If you enjoyed this feature, follow him at @LolZeju.

Image courtesy of Esportspedia, Garena, Riot Games and ESL.

 

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