RadoN’s thousand is a series of articles in which I share my take on an esports topic of my choosing in about a thousand words. This entry adresses the upcoming semifinals for APEX S3.

Afreeca Freecs Blue will enter tomorrow's semifinal, having lost zero maps throughout the five Bo5 series they've played in APEX S3 this far. To describe ArHaN and co.'s run as less than dominant would be a significant understatement. Many pundits and analysts would consider them the favorite against a WhoRU-less Lunatic-Hai. An additional fact that plays into this is that Lunatic-Hai's last match started only 72 hours before the one against AF Blue will. The latter on the other hand, thanks to winning their Ro8 group and Lunatic-aiH's previous match being delayed will have had just short of two weeks to prepare. They learned who will be their opponent only when ryujehong's boys beat LuxuryWatch Blue, but it is very much a fairly earned advantage. 'Stage rust' hasn't shown itself to be a significant performance factor in esports and time to prepare most certainly has.

And while their path to the semifinals hasn't been as impressive as their opponent's, Miro and co. have shown themselves fully capable of beating Afreeca's playstyle when they manhandled Rogue in a clean sweep. Even though winz himself admits the French's minds weren't in the right place for the match and an argument can be made that AF Blue are a better team, the latter and the French favor similar playstyles and compositions. Both prefer an aggressive, dive-oriented playstyle with significant outside damage threats, rather than supportive ones -- uNKOE and aKm for the French side, Recry and Lucid for the Korean. Comparably, Rogue has a stronger presence from the outside and Afreeca use D.Va more efficiently, but the mismatch hasn't resulted in any significant differences, when it comes to their styles of play.

This isn't to say AF Blue won't have any idea what's coming, as both squads are almost certainly familiar with each other from scrims, but experience in official matches accounts for much more than that. Even top teams and players will often practice in a manner different to their play in an official match as the primary purpose of scrims is improving and not winning. Some will play looser as they are trying to figure out their limits, others will play in a stricter manner as they're to learning a new execute, third will lack motivation to try hard during practice, but the teams who play in practice the way they play in officials are rare.

And while Lunatic-Hai have on-stage experience with a variation of AF Blue, the latter are going to experience meeting an elite level competition for the first time in APEX's current season. The iterations of RunAway and Uncia they played against are far from that, Meta Athena are yet to show themselves capable of playing as or against dive compositions at a sufficiently high level. X6, who they bested twice, have shown little, outside of the close upset over a fumbling EnVyUs, who returned to slam dunk on them in a clean sweep, only a week later. No one can fault ArHaN and co. for being lucky with the draws of opponents -- especially when one considers their 15-0 map score this season -- yet, at the same time, the team can't be assumed able to do something they haven't done. Particularly when it is something they haven't been able to do, ever. Notably, earlier in its lifespan,  AF Blue went on a streak of losing to the team which won the event, but what is more crucial, through the squad's many iterations, ArHaN and co. have never scored -- or been close to -- a win against a championship-level opponent. Objectively lesser teams like wNv.KR and X6 have managed to do it online, but AF Blue haven't achieved even that minor feat.

Looking at it both historically and, admittedly to a lesser degree, in their current run, a huge part of it can be put down to how much the team emphasizes winning through individual skills and playmaking. The prime example for that  -- as the focal point on AF Blue -- is ArHaN's Genji, if he is the best player on the server and can't be shut down, they win. However, if he's shut down or fails to perform as the star, his aggressive plays will often snowball the game against his team. To put it in layman's terms, AF Blue's star-player is yet to show himself able to get carried against the elite opposition. This is particularly concerning against Lunatic-Hai as they are a championship-level team and boast comparable skill level, but more importantly, have ryujehong on the roster. The super-star support has been able to shut down many-a-star-player, but Genjis have been particularly vulnerable to his Sleep Darts.

If that is to happen to ArHaN's, the rest of the team will need to step up more than usual, but will they be able to? Will the unproven-against-the-top-tier Mano be able to do that with Miro, a fellow Winston stand-out, on the enemy team? Will AF Blue be able to adapt and play around Recry as the focal point and shift ArHaN to Tracer or Sombra, two heroes he's displayed some affinity for? Recry has certainly showcased the ability to fulfill the role, but has hardly been allowed to do so past APEX S1. Originally showing monstrous play on projectile and closer range hitscan heroes like Reaper and McCree, the last few months have seen him take over the Soldier 76 duties almost full-time.

The one true advantage AF Blue hold in terms of individual match-ups is certainly in the Dealer (DPS) positions, but will they be able to adapt and make the most out of that mismatch? If one is to look at both recent and the more distant history, the answer they'll get is a resounding 'no'. In that way, ArHaN and co. are more akin to the older, and less flexible, versions of Lunatic-Hai, who are nowadays a good example of a team adjusting their tactics to match-up best against their opponents.

The final question one must ask when assigning AF Blue the favorite status is that of endurance. How will they hold up in a Bo7 series? RunAway learned the hard way that it is not the same as playing a Bo5 when they failed to close out a 3-1 lead in APEX S2's semifinals to South Korea's golden boys. On the other hand, Lunatic-Hai benefit from Bo7 due to not only experience, but also the amount of maps played for each map type. The longer series format increases the amount of play on Escort and Assault, but keeps the same number of Hybrid maps -- a type on which Lunatic-Hai have been shakier in the recent past.

All of this doesn't come to show that AF Blue won't win, but rather that if they do so it would have been a significant accomplishment on their side, something they haven't been able to do before, and not just another day at the office. Furthermore, if they're able to continue their map score win streak, they'll likely be cemented as the favorites for winning the tournament.

Photo credits: OGN

About the author: Hello readers, I go by the ID RadoN! I’ve been following different games within the esports industry ever since finding out about it in 2009. The titles that I follow closely for the time being are Overwatch, CS:GO and Quake Live, while occasionally dabbling in SFV, Dota 2 and LoL. If you wish to reach out, follow future content, or simply know more about my thoughts on esports and gaming, you can find me on twitter at @RadoNonfire.