Ace
2017-08-17 08:33:33
Coming into this season, the level of competition was raised to one of the highest the NA LCS has ever seen. Immortals fixed many of their issues, CLG got a carry jungler, TSM got Doublelift, and C9 stuck with their strong spring split roster. After all the drama, player swaps, wild upsets, and Team Liquid still ending up in the relegation tournament, we have finally reached playoffs. Today, let’s look at Dignitas and the hardest matchup in the Quarterfinals that they could have asked for, Cloud 9.
To Preface, Cloud 9 has won both sets against Dignitas in the NA LCS 2017 Summer Split. The match score is 4-2 overall for the Summer split. The matchups are as follows:
The tale of Ssumday against Impact is one that has existed since the KT Rolster Bullets vs SK Telecom T1 K days. Many have stated that Ssumday is one of the best top-laners in the world, and as of this split, he is the #1 pick for the NA All-LCS team. He has carried many teams very close to the top, carrying back on KT Rolster last year. A player of such a caliber should have an easy road to the top, no? Not when he is against Impact, one of the only top laners to hold him off this split. As of their last matchup, Impact won lane in all 3 games, doing well against Ssumday well throughout the series. In the last two matches of the series, Impact generated the pressure for Cloud 9 to work off, partnering with his fellow jungler Contractz in order to take over the game. On the other side, Shrimp trusts in Ssumday to get an advantage in most of their matches, so he can focuses on getting Dignitas’ middle and bottom lane ahead.
Ssumday prefers to play an aggressive style that generates enough pressure to win the game for his team, as long as the rest of the squad are not falling too far behind. As a result Ssumday prefers his Fiora, Renekton, Jarvan IV, and Shen to help him do so. Impact can play all of those champions as well, but Impact performs better in teamfights, an aspect Ssumday can struggle with at times. A big issue with that is that teamfights are how most games are currently won, and Cloud 9 has beaten Dignitas in that regard for a very long time. When facing off against Impact this weekend, he may not be able to the carry his team needs, but if he is, Dignitas will be able to have another rematch against Team SoloMid, in hopes of sweeping them yet again.
Stats-wise across the split: Ssumday has a lower win-rate than Impact, with a 57% winrate compared to the 68% of the Cloud 9 top laner. He has played more matches than Impact, with 51 games to Impact’s 31, and with more matches Ssumday still maintins a higher KDA (.3.8 to 3.3) and higher Kill Participation (69.6% to 58.3%) over Impact. His laning stats seem to be a bit worse though, with a lower First blood percentage (Ssumday’s 17.6% to Impact’s 26.1%), a lower Gold Difference at 10 (-60 to +42), a lower CS differential at 10 (-.4 to 3.3), and a bit lower of Damage per minute (410 to 420).
An interesting factor to note is that although Ssumday does less damage per minute than Impact, he has a HIGHER damage percent, meaning that on average, Cloud 9’s teammates do more damage than Dignitas does.
Winner: Ssumday, but not by a large margin 55-45~. I believe he is one of the best carries in NA, but he has struggled against Cloud 9 in the past. He can win his team at least one game, but Impact should actually win the series.
Shrimp is a great jungler that has performed well against the top teams in NA this split. The problem here is that this is Shrimp has a hard time against aggressive junglers and he is against one of the best junglers in the league currently, Contractz. In fact, he dies a LOT against them and their squads. In their last matchup, Contractz kept tabs on Shrimp for almost every match, and they got many free kills, camps, and objectives off of that advantage. I expect Contractz to smash Shrimp in most of the games they play. Shrimp also has less bo5 experience, a limited successful champion pool, and can be very predictable.
Stats wise: Let’s take a look on the numbers behind Contractz’s playstyle. In the same amount of matches, Contractz has 117 kills to Shrimp’s 94, 110 deaths to Shrimp’s 126, and 333 assists to Shrimp’s 276. He is involved in 80 more kills while dying less, has a higher First Blood rate of 36% to Shrimp’s 24%, higher Gold Difference at 10, higher CS differential at 10, higher damage per minute, and higher wards placed per minute. Shrimp has a higher EXP differential at 10 (-2 to Contractz -60), and a higher wards cleared per minute (.33 to Contractz’s .29), but nothing notable. Shrimp is a farmer, and as a result may get a camp or two to stay even in experience, but he will still be down in gold whereas Contractz might get a bit more from kills around the map. Winner: Contractz. This matchup should be a wash. I expect Shrimp to be at a deficit throughout much of the series, but not to the point where he is solely losing the game.
Keane vs Jensen, a matchup the league has seen for years. This season, their top 4 most common champions are the same. I expect to see Orianna, Syndra, Taliyah, and Cassiopeia in the Pick and Ban phase for these two players, but I also expect some new picks from Keane such as the Jayce, Azir, and Karthus. Jensen overall has played much better than Keane, dying nearly half as much but getting more than 100 kills over Keane. Jensen has evolved into a great team-player, performing well in teamfights and carrying Cloud 9 to victory on countless occasions. Keane on the other hand, does not do as well in most of those regards, and in recent weeks has been getting caught out time and time again, overextending in both areas that they do not have pressure, and teamfights that cost Dignitas the win. I expect Jensen to take over this lane, take over the game, and to be the most powerful force of Cloud 9 in this series.
Stats wise: Jensen has a 256 kills to Keane’s 149, 57 deaths to Keane’s 101, and 240 assists to Keane’s 251. That means that Jensen has been involved in 97 more kills than Keane has, in a fewer amount of games (C9’s 45 to Dig’s 51). Jensen has a higher Kill Participation, lower death share, massively higher Gold difference, XP difference, and CS difference at 10 minutes. Jensen has a higher DPM, WPM and leads in every stat but one, which is First Blood percentage, where Keane has 16% FB percentage to Jensen’s 7%.
Winner: Jensen, by miles. This matchup will be an uphill battle for Dignitas to win if Jensen has his way.
The Bottom Lane: Better Playmaker Wins
Altec and Adrian against Sneaky and Smoothie: This matchup will come down to who gets Tristana and which playmaking support will take the lead. Altec and Sneaky play Kalista, Twitch, Tristana, and Sivir and will be a consistent damage source for their team in most of their matches. Lane phases are even for the most part, but I expect these lanes to be won by their supports.
Both Adrian and Smoothie are very strong players that can play multiple styles, but Smoothie has taken over their last matchup. I expect Taric, Alistar, and Thresh to be highly contested, with some hints of Blitzcrank. Smoothie could also pull out his Shen (great flex against Dig!) and Nautilus support in this matchup, with Adrian pulling out his Nami. Stats wise: Sneaky has a higher KDA with more games, has a higher First Blood rate, Damage per minute, and wards placed per minute. He does have a higher death rate and lower Gold Difference at 10, XP difference at 10, and CS difference at 10 but he also played more games, especially against the Top teams, and C9 did go through a bit of a slump this season so there is an excuse there. Altec dies less, has a higher Kill participation, higher Damage percentage (but lower DPM, damage problem with Dig again), and receives more gold from his team.
Based off stats, Altec wins out by a small margin, but in this matchup I expect both to go even unless one support wins out.
Support Stats: With about double the matches, Smoothie has a higher KDA, has been involved in 299 more kills than Adrian. They have equal Kill Participation, but Adrian holds a quarter of Dignitas’ team deaths, whereas smoothie holds a fifth. Smoothie is generally worse off in GD10 and XPD10, but he also goes for roams earlier in hopes off attaining a lead early. Adrian also places more wards but clears less.
None really win out, but Adrian’s death share can be an issue for Dignitas when they already lack pressure in this matchup. It is up to him to make the play, and through that, Dignitas can win. If Smoothie is the playmaker in this matchup, Dignitas will be forced to fight through the gauntlet in order to make their way to the World Championship.
Reapered has more experience, has corrected his drafting issues recently, and has been with Cloud 9 for longer than Cop. The pressure in this best of five can affect Cop and his team in this series, and that can prove to be an issue if they begin to drop games.
Trust the process (and Ssumday) or trust the Jensen kingdom. This matchup will be a great watch, and you can tune in on Saturday, August 19th at 12pm PT.
Follow me on Twitter for more LCS content at @AlbertPCoh.
Images courtesy of Lolesports