Predictions, not Convictions:

Patches are not Solely Responsible

South Korea’s APEX Overwatch League had its semi-finals recently, where the last western team remaining Team Envyus went toe to toe with hometown heroes, KongDoo Uncia. The APEX league has been rife with upsets. A wave of controversy washed over the scene during the quarter finals. Lunatic-Hai (arguably Korea’s best team) lost 3-0 in quiet the close set versus KongDoo Uncia as well as Rogue (arguably the best team in the world) lost to Envyus.

Things looked bleak for our boys in blue; most had Envyus written off as a guaranteed loss, but they came out of the burning house without a scratch. The fact that there was so many upsets left us all questioning  our own predictions. No one wants a huge patch in the middle of a major tournament; the competitive integrity is in question. Yet, less of the upsets are coming from the patch and are moreso just player error and general misplay. Boiling down teams and tournaments alike to a single patch is disingenuous and frankly boring.

(Provided by GosuGamers)

Overwatch is going on its 1st year of competitive play. The game is still so young; upsets can and will happen, and it seems to be coming off the back of one team: Team Envyus. After losing an integral dps player in Talespin, they picked up Taiwanese player up-and-comer, Micki. They moved InternetHulk (formerly flex) to a support role, and moved HarryHook (formerly support) to a lead hit scan dps. Viewers were shocked at the fluidity that Envy played with after only having two days of practice after their roster shuffle. This didn’t stop them from mowing down KongDoo Uncia in the Semi-Finals on the back of their new star D.va player.

Let us not write off Team Envyus as a “patch team” that had a few upsets. Yes, the patch play a role in their strength, but the Cinderella-like aquistion of Micki durring a D.va meta is going to be something of legend through esports. The stars aligned and Envyus took their rolled their dice and came out ahead -- can’t blame them for that. A team with two days of practice move to the final in South Korea, that's an incredible feat and should be applauded, not brushed aside.

(Provided by ESL)

The game has not been solved, partly due to the constant state of influx that Overwatch is in right now. We are in a world where Esports has been around for some time, and even I have to remember that new games enter the scene and don’t have the mathematical-like algorithm to it.

Overwatch is one of those new titles that is not abundant with theories and data. New things are discovered week after week. Players are just starting to push the limits of the game, we need to give them time before we start making grandiose predictions and writing teams off. Envyus is an anomaly, I admit, but we have to remember that there are possibilities of this exact thing happening.

In most esports, the first few seasons experience a vast amount of growing pains. League of Legends’ first season is largely ignored by most analysts because the game itself was so influx. Super Smash Bros. Melee, as an example, is nothing like it once was back in 2006. Ken “Ken” Hoang, The King of Smash, is not at the top anymore. Halo 2 of 2005, legendary Final Boss wore the crown of king. There are new kings in every game, but traveling back, if you were to ask anyone in the Melee scene if Ken or the Ogre twins would be usurped, people would question your sanity. Hindsight is 20/20; we can’t take predictions as expectations, at least not yet. Our sample size for Overwatch is just too small.

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Images courtesy of ESL, GosuGamers, and Blizzard.